Sunday, August 10, 2008

The Meaning of South Ossetia?

With the eyes of the world transfixed on the Beijing's Olympics, pandamonium broke loose. South Ossetia, a Republic of Georgia province, declared independence from Georgia. Georgia immediately dispatched its military to quell the uprising for independence.


Then it was Putin's turn. Five-hundred Russian tanks, military jets, and and military personnel invaded President Mikheil Sakashvili's Georgian Republic. Georgian miltary forces were repelled out of their own cities; thousands of Georgian citizens in Tblisi, the capital, endured the bombing campaigns of Russian war planes. All of this during the Goodwill of the Olympics?


So what to make of Putin and the invasion? Seven years earlier George Bush stated: "I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straight forward and trustworthy and we had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul."

Since those famous words about Putin, he has jailed Karaspov and political opposition for power, shut down media outlets, nationalized Gazprom, and declared that democracy doesn't always have to be American style.

Senator McCain's recently commented, "I looked into Putin's eyes and saw 3 letters--KGB."


Who is closer to the truth-Bush or McCain?


Putin is rebuilding empire. With $120 oil, huge cash influx, and a new Russian spirit, Putin is reassembling empire beginning with the run-away republics of the 1990's. Putin has stated that the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century was the implosion of political and economic Soviet Russia. Putin intends to recticy such a disaster.


In addition, it is Putin's Russia that has felt the slap of a superior America since 1990 Soviet implosion. Consider the following since 1990:


With 14 former Soviet states breaking away since 1990, the Bush Administration unilaterally debunked the SALT Treaty of five American presidents and is deploying a missile defense shield in the Ukraine and Poland - rolling runways, F-16s, bombers, and soldiers up to the borders of Russia.

Is it any wonder that Putin has called Bush, "A wolf in sheep's clothing"? Putin's 65% popularity amongst Russians comes from standing up to the Americans, who have treated Russia as a second rate power.


Putin's blood, indeed, boiled when America and her western allies backed a Bosnian plan to separate from Serbia. These are Slavic affairs. The Bosnians separated. The United Nations recognized the move. It is to be remember that Russians went to war in 1914 for Serbia. The blood ties are no less today between Serbia and Russia.


Countries have honor, like individuals. As Putin's Russia was discarded by the world as a world power, the motherland has wallowed in an identity crisis since Gorbacev's "Glasnost".

But Putin has slowly and autocratically used democracy to manipulate events with oil passing $100 per barrel. Who else is responsible for stoking the flames of nationalism in South Ossetia, where a small segment want nothing with being Georgian? Could it be that the Kremlin has plotted to back separatists to break away from Georgia? Moscow has sent munitions and military training as well as funded nearly 60% of South Ossetia's provincial budget in the name of secession from Georgia.


Putin has determined that if the Russians can't have Georgia as a pliable neighbor, then they will strip Georgia of its vital importance to the Bush administration and the west.


Yes-oil flows from the Caspian through Georgia. But its honor that matters most to Putin and his citizens more so.

Wasn't it the Russians who wathched embarassingly, as Serbia lost Bosnia, and could only twiddle their thumbs? Serbia was worth starting WWI to the Russians. In 2008, neither Medvedev nor Putin are about to lose all of Georgia to the west.


Putin has laid the mousetrap. Georgia's, Mikhail Saakashvili's bit with an untenable gamble. The Russian Bear has swallowed South Ossetia for good. Will the Americans or Europeans start a shooting war with the Russians for land in the Caucus Mountains? Thus, Sakhavili's cry, "The Russians are coming!! The Russians are coming!!" will go the way of the Sudentland just before WWII.

Will JFK's great demands to "bear any burden and pay any price" to defend America's allies across the globe have limits?

The clock is ticking...

The Russians are digging in. Missiles will be deployed in South Ossetia. And the west will likely do little to alter the course of Russian aggression this time.

Americans, however, have already encircled Moscow post 9/11 with an unbelievable geostrategic military cooperation of Uzbekistan, Kyrgystan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazahkstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Its amazing how well the "War on Terror" has worked out for the United States. That means boots on the ground, runways built, F-16's and bombers on alert each day eyeing Moscow and Beijing.

The Great Bear of Russia, though, is trying to rise from the ashes of humiliation and near bankruptcy in 1991, Russia's new found wealth and identity in the last 10 years has the country extracting oil in 11 time zones, beefing up its military, and attempting to reassert its role in the world.

Its the good old days again! The Cold War gave America an arch enemy to fight; its military a purpose for existence. And the bad boy Russians may be here to stay.

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